Israel-Iran: As uncertainty looms, what are the early implications for Cyprus?

It’s unlikely we’ll see Israeli paratroopers in Tehran, or Iranian jets over Al-Aqsa, but for smaller regional countries like Cyprus, how does the Israel-Iran war change national outlooks on defense. [Sirhal, 2022]

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen". Regarding the current situation in the Middle East—and the past two years, as it were—it seems we are in weeks where centuries are happening. Evidently, there are many unknowns, such as if the U.S. plans to enter the conflict openly and under what circumstances it would. It is also obvious that a mutual deterrent to land-based offensives is the fact that Israel and Iran are separated by at least two other countries in every direction; Syria and Turkey, Syria and Iraq, Jordan and Iraq, etc. That being said, the most pressing issue for Iran and, to a lesser extent, Israel is health and availability of each’s drone, missile, and air-defense artillery stockpiles.

However, this moment it is hardly possible to say:

-       At an end, what Iranian nuclear program facilities will remain intact.

-       Whether other countries, primarily China, will send armaments to Iran.

-       What the positions of Pakistan and India in case of further escalation will be.

These are just the uncertainties that ‘lie on top’, so to say.

Understandably, the Republic of Cyprus expressed its deep concern with the situation and its possible impact on the country’s own internal and external security. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Constantinos Kombos, and President Nikos Christodoulides conversed with both sides in recent days, as well as other regional leaders. What is even more remarkable, under Cypriot initiative the informal videoconference of the EU’s Ministers of Foreign Affairs took place.

All these moves are reasonable, given the important, but at the same time vulnerable geopolitical position of Cyprus. Independent of the above-mentioned unknowns, what is sure is that Cyprus must prioritize its own defense through the avoidance of political confrontation that would risk its security and, at the same time, by taking necessary measures to be able to inflict significant military damage on any force that may attack the island or its diverse and independent citizenry.